If there’s anyone who enjoys a good gamble, it’s yours truly.
And while I wouldn’t call myself a professional gambler, but I know a good bet when I see one.
And when Southern Illinois’ football team went for a game-winning two-point conversion after pulling to within one point of Indiana, I knew it was a bad bet as soon as I saw it.
I even said so after Southern scored a touchdown to make it 48-47.
If you follow me on Twitter, you would know I had strong opinions on going for two there.
Going for two in that specific instance goes against basic gambling principles. Further, it offends my gambling sensibilities.
In short: Southern placed a bet when it had long odds and not enough time to make amends for a failed risk.
The way I see it, one shouldn’t spend their last dollars on a long shot. And Southern really didn’t have to at that point.
Dale Lennon could have (and I argue should have) attempted a PAT and force Indiana into overtime. This is the equivalent of taking your last $20 and spreading it into around into safe investments in an attempt to build up some equity so you can make a riskier play that could come with a better payoff when you can afford to make it.
Frankly, I like to think this is the best way to wager.
The Salukis put up 47 points on the Hoosiers in their building, so it’s not as if they had trouble scoring. And while Indiana scored 48, they had obviously let Southern hang around long enough to the point I would argue that they were bound to screw something up one last time.
By taking the extra point, Southern would’ve given itself a puncher’s chance in college’s wacky overtime setting. And after 60 minutes of battle, I think the players on the field deserved that more than anything.
I suppose football logic suggests go for two and the win in that situation.
It wouldn’t be the first time I’ve disagreed with sports logic that I would argue is dated and oftentimes is not supported by the kind of odds one would weigh in an effort to give their team the best chance to win on a weekly basis.
The two-point conversion rate is 47.5 percent. Meaning, that the odds are more in the defense’s favor of getting a stop. It’s not overwhelming, but it’s not insignificant.
Southern could’ve made the play and won the game. And if they did, I would’ve been writing the same thing today. I’d call it an unnecessary risk in a game that was there for the taking in overtime against a team that was handing you chances left and right.
But I suppose I’d be writing it while in a better mood.
Onward and upward, Salukis. For I feel as if you have a good chance to make positive things happen in 2015 if your offense averages 47 points per game.